Know what each number can prove.

Tide's published shadow record is tied to a frozen strategy specification. The forward window begins after the underlying research cutoff, which prevents later observations from quietly changing the rules used to score them.

The account view starts at $60,000 and applies ten full NQ contracts to each recorded trade, with no compounding. One NQ point is $20 per contract. The base record deducts $6 per contract per round trip in modeled commissions. The optional friction control deducts an additional 0.5, 1, or 2 points per contract per trade.

The record includes wins, losses, drawdowns, and flat periods. Rainwater does not remove unfavorable trades from the sequence or present the forward shadow as brokerage performance.

The frozen forward record is calculated after each completed session from one-minute futures bars. It includes all 27 official trades through September 4, 2026, including shortened-session trades. June 18 has missing source data and appears as a gap. Publication is a reviewed snapshot, not a real-time account feed.

The separate 2017–2026 benchmark contains 889 trades from the calendar-safe research version. It excludes documented degraded and shortened sessions. Its rules differ from the frozen forward runner, so the two records are never spliced together. Older research pages may use a different capital or contract-size basis.

The curve connects each recorded trade close and carries the closed balance across flat periods. Both drawdown measures begin with the opening balance and use chronological trade closes. The largest dollar decline and the largest percentage decline can occur in different periods. Neither captures open-position losses or intrabar movement.

The research does not establish that a live venue would reproduce modeled fills. Slippage, missed or partial fills, exchange and regulatory fees, data outages, taxes, platform behavior, and human error can materially change an outcome.

Ten NQ contracts are a fixed comparison basis, not a recommendation for a $60,000 account. Margin liquidation is not modeled. The largest historical closed-equity decline at that size is $87,150, greater than the opening balance; prior gains supported the inception path, but a new account would not start with that cushion.