Frozen specification
c1b25d8The identifier attached to the published shadow snapshot.
Tide / Methodology
Know what each number can prove.
The methodology separates the frozen strategy, historical replay, forward shadow, and future execution tests. Each layer answers a different question, so Rainwater labels them separately.
Current statusFrozen spec / paper evaluation
Research boundary
The rules stop moving before the test begins.
Tide's published shadow record is tied to a frozen strategy specification. The forward window begins after the underlying research cutoff, which prevents later observations from quietly changing the rules used to score them.
Forward window
Since 2026-06-10Completed sessions scored after the research boundary.
Published through
2026-07-30The last date represented by the static public snapshot.
Execution status
UnprovenNo broker fills and no live order route are represented.
Measurement
What the published record includes.
The public record is generated from completed one-minute futures bars. Signals are scored after the information needed to produce them exists, and commissions are included in the published snapshot. The site shows NQ and MNQ as two contract sizes applied to the same underlying research decisions.
The record includes wins, losses, drawdowns, and flat periods. Rainwater does not remove unfavorable trades from the sequence or present the forward shadow as brokerage performance.
Known limits
What the record leaves unresolved.
The research does not establish that a live venue would reproduce modeled fills. Slippage, missed or partial fills, exchange and regulatory fees, data outages, taxes, platform behavior, and human error can materially change an outcome.
Verification path