Observe the weather
Map regime, structure, and behavior before asking the market for an answer.
Context before signalRainwater Hedge / Tide
Let the
record
speak.
One futures strategy. Every win, every loss, and the waiting in between.
One fixed strategy. A growing body of evidence.
The forward record begins June 10, 2026.
TideNQ futures
Research accountThrough Sep 4, 2026
Account value
$80,280+$20,280 (+33.8%)
$60,000 opening10 NQ · fixed sizeNo compounding
Trades278 wins / 19 losses
Win rate29.6%All recorded trades
Profit factor1.28Net wins ÷ net losses
Closed drawdown−$27,48029.2% max. peak decline
Account basis. Simulated results from recorded strategy trades, scaled to $60,000 and 10 NQ. No broker orders executed. $6 per contract in round-trip commissions; no slippage or market impact. Methodology
Inspect every tradeMarket / NQ + MNQ futuresRecord / Completed-session researchExecution / Not yet live
01Thesis
Rainwater Hedge
Patience is part
of the system.
Tide is a Nasdaq futures strategy built around asymmetric outcomes. It loses more often than it wins. The research asks whether larger winners can pay for those losses, after costs, across different markets.
The full historical benchmark and the frozen forward record are published separately. The $60,000 account is an illustration, not investor capital. Broker execution and live fills remain unverified.
UniverseNQ / MNQThe chart models ten full NQ contracts
Archive08 papersFindings remain on file
Current postureForward shadowNo orders / no subscriber routing
02Method
The operating sequence
The rules stay fixed.
The evidence accumulates.
Attack the idea
Test the attractive version, the boring version, and the random control against the same data.
Counterfactual requiredRefuse weak evidence
A strategy stays in research when costs, drawdowns, or forward behavior break the claim.
No scale by narrativePublish what survived
The useful result may be a system, a smaller claim, or a clear reason to stop.
Method on the record03Research
The public record
The claim gets narrower when the evidence does.
Paper 08 / Strategy12 min read
Latest dossier
Tide lives.
The claim got stricter.
Open the dossier08Tide lives. The claim got stricter.Strategy12 min07More trades was the wrong goal.Discipline14 min06Above the eight.Regime12 min05The day before tells you. But you already knew.Regime14 min04What we don't trade — and why.Discipline7 min
Enter the complete research archive04Operating notes
State of the desk
Research is allowed to say no.
Tide NQ
Forward researchCompleted sessions are scored against one frozen strategy. The chart shows the latest published snapshot.
Broker execution
UnprovenThe observed record has no broker fills and makes no live-performance claim.
QQQ options
RetiredMonths of testing did not clear the economic gate.
Subscriber routing
OffNo live futures routing while the research posture is paper-only.